THE North Vancouver school district says it is keeping an eye on the looming boom in Lynn Valley's population but there's no pressing need to expand school capacity in the area, according to administrators.
Under the District of North Vancouver's 2011 official community plan, the Lynn Valley area is expected to gain another 5,000 residents as denser residential developments sprout up around the village centre over the next 20 years.
But the school district's research shows very few of those new residents will have school-aged children
"We do our forecasts every year. We do them each spring. We verify it the following September. We work with a demographic specialist and we work with a consulting firm for our longer-term forecast," said superintendent John Lewis.
That forecast includes 10 to 15 years of housing development as indicated by the OCP.
"Apartments, which are the predominant type of housing proposed for the Lynn Valley Town Centre, will yield very few students," he said. "The sense that we're going to have more families living in apartments is very slow to develop."
That fact belies the oft-repeated mantra by planners and developers that high-density towers in walkable, urban neighbourhoods are becoming the preferred option for young people looking to get into home ownership and start a family, but are priced out of owning a single-family home, Lewis admits.
"Certainly it is, but that's something that has not yet materialized. It's something that is isolated into particular pockets. Perhaps Yaletown is a good example where there is a more of a family environment," he said.
The alternative for young people is moving farther away. That option appears to be the preferred one, as evidenced by the rapid growth and pressure on school boards to increase capacity in the Fraser Valley area where the geography allows for continued spreading of suburbs and lower market prices for detached homes, Lewis said.
"For a generation that is struggling to be able to remain on the North Shore, there are other alternatives available," he said referring to places like Surrey, Langley and Maple Ridge. "Those alternatives may be more attractive than the model of raising a family in an apartment or in a townhome at the present time."
Still, some increase is expected in enrolment, though at the present time, the number of kids in North Vancouver schools is going down year-by-year.
The Lynn Valley elementary school was built to accommodate an additional four classrooms, which the school board will not seek provincial funding for until a new housing development has begun.
The district has been given the go-ahead to do a seismic upgrade on Argyle secondary school, which is already over capacity but the board is still seeking approval for a full rebuild.
"We are proceeding on two tracks. We're planning for the seismic upgrade. We're also planning for a replacement school contingent upon approval by the Ministry of Education to switch the seismic upgrade to a new school," Lewis said.
If that happens, the district will carry out a thorough study into what the capacity of the new Argyle ought to be.
The school was built to hold 1,300 students but the province will allow schools to go over their official capacities by another 15 per cent to 20 per cent, Lewis said.
Current enrolment at Argyle is just under 1,400, Lewis said. Based on the number of students coming from elementary schools, the board expects that will drop down to about 1,250 over the next three to four years, followed by a plateau and then a slight increase.
