It is telling that the words “Kinder Morgan” and “pipeline” were not contained in this week’s throne speech, an indication perhaps that the B.C. NDP government is trying to cool down emotions on the pipeline issue.
In fact, it wasn’t until the very end of a long speech that bitumen – the Alberta oil sands product that flows through the Kinder Morgan pipeline – was even mentioned, and even then the speech said the government was simply “considering new protections” to improve the ability to respond to bitumen spills.
No mention of the contentious idea of creating a new regulation to control how much bitumen actually flows in the pipe. No mention of the pipeline itself.
A lot of the speech was spent addressing housing (it took up more than three pages of the 20-page speech), child care (more than two pages) and other issues such as affordability, inequality, health care, reconciliation, infrastructure, public safety, education and mental health were all devoted significant portions of the speech.
The first reference to bitumen was the seventh-to-last paragraph in the speech, an indication perhaps of the B.C. NDP not wanting to further strain relations with the Alberta NDP government.
After vowing to use “every tool in the toolbox” to stop the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion, the NDP government hit upon a novel idea: come up with that regulation that would control the pipeline flow.
In response, Alberta Premier Rachel Notley is blocking the importation of B.C. wine into her province, and has dropped strong hints at bringing in even more sanctions against B.C. (preventing B.C.-based firms from getting contracts in the oil sands, or border inspections of commercial vehicles have been suggested by some).
It’s hard to see how B.C. wins this battle from a legal standpoint.
The federal government has clear constitutional powers when it comes to regulating trade and commerce and any attempt by the B.C. government to essentially stop a federally approved pipeline from operating would likely be quickly deemed unconstitutional by any court.
In recent days, Minister of Natural Resources Jim Carr and Environment Minister Catherine McKenna have both made strong to-the-point statements that there is no way the B.C. government will be allowed to stop the construction and use of the Kinder Morgan pipeline.
If B.C. pushes on with the regulation idea, the whole thing is likely headed to court. But of course, legalities are one thing. Politics is quite another, and this pipeline war is mostly about politics.
Political necessity requires Notley to take a very aggressive and determined stand when it comes to sticking up for her province’s number one industry and the provincial economy. She has to fend off United Conservative leader Jason Kenney, who wants to take even tougher sanctions against B.C.
While Notley’s position is straightforward, Horgan’s position is more nuanced. He must appease the sizeable environmental base of his party (a group enraged by his decision to complete the Site C dam) while at the same time he cannot alienate the business community.
All his government has done has been to issue a news release that contained a line about crafting a regulation concerning the flow of bitumen. It hasn’t actually taken any action whatsoever (in fact, bitumen has been flowing through the existing Kinder Morgan pipeline for months now, including the seven months the NDP has formed government in B.C.).
The squabbling between Alberta and B.C. will likely continue for a while yet, but eventually the action moves elsewhere.
The real opposition will inevitably move from the parliamentary stage to the extra-parliamentary one: the protest blockades and massive acts of disobedience will dwarf anything contemplated by the NDP government.
Television nightly newscasts will be filled by people being dragged off to jail, and with emotions undoubtedly running high, the chances of things getting ugly or even violent are good.
And those protests – not a regulation brought in by a government with no jurisdiction – may ultimately determine the fate of the pipeline. Either the Trudeau government will steel itself and push the pipeline through, or Kinder Morgan tires of all the delays and street protests and simply walks away from the project.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC. [email protected]
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