THE federal NDP has made a historic choice in Thomas Mulcair as its new leader, and it will be interesting to see how that choice affects British Columbia's presence in the party and the party's strength in this province.
The obvious distinction about Mulcair is that he is from Quebec and is closely associated with that province's politics. Presumably, he will shift his focus to not only maintaining his party's sudden breakthrough in that province but to also building on it.
For decades, the NDP has been dominated by MPs and activists from Western Canada and parts of Ontario. B.C. has long played an important role, as it could always be counted on to send a consistent number of NDP MPs to Ottawa in each election.
As a result, B.C. had a good proportional presence in what was always a fairly small caucus. But if Mulcair delivers the goods and actually brings the party to power, he won't be doing it with many more MPs from this province
He will attain power by expanding the party's seat count in Quebec and Ontario. As a result, the historic core of the NDP will shift out of the West, and B.C. will find its influence in the party begin to wane.
So the NDP will become a more Quebec-focused party. But what other changes may occur under Mulcair's leadership?
The fact he's a former Liberal and was chosen leader despite that speaks volumes of how the NDP may be changing before our very eyes. The party has long been dominated by ideologues who wear their social democratic policies on their sleeves, and who have never had to change their views because they never had a remote chance of actually forming a government.
But while Mulcair appears to be a centrist who tilts left, he is not cut from the same cloth as those who built the party. Former party leader Ed Broadbent, an icon to much of the party faithful, denounced Mulcair's candidacy in the final weeks of the campaign.
Mulcair beat the party establishment, and in so doing he may have also be able to beat the party's past and I'd be surprised if he embraces a lot of traditional lefty positions. He's already on the record about supporting free trade and advocating a more aggressive foreign policy, including military intervention in such places as Syria.
A B.C. NDP MLA told me he couldn't help noticing a photo of all the leadership candidates at the party convention, which to him spoke volumes about the choices being offered.
All of them were waving at the crowd, except for one. That would be Brian Topp, the party establishment choice, who opted to hold up a clenched fist.
The clenched-fist symbolizes the old days of class struggle and union hall politics of the traditional left. Mulcair appears ready to take the party down a new path that has less to do with partnering with old causes and more to do with embracing a new economy while still fighting for such issues as income equality and climate change.
This brings us to the sensitive issue of party unity, which Mulcair says is his top priority. The party establishment (the "elites") pulled out all the stops in trying to keep him out of the top job, and it's hard to imagine all those knives will be permanently put away.
His decision to keep Vancouver East MP Libby Davies as deputy leader will appease the left-wing faction of his caucus, but I have to wonder just how long she'll keep that post. Now that he's leader, his pro free trade and non-pacifist positions take on new importance, and are sure to upset the traditional leftists in his party. Throw in the challenges presented by a Quebec-dominated caucus, and the stage is set for some interesting internal tensions to emerge.
It's also unclear how B.C. voters will react to a Quebecker trying to become prime minister. Will there be a backlash among some voters who are unhappy with the Harper government but are reluctant to vote for someone so closely tied to Quebec?
But of course if the NDP can make big gains in Quebec, winning seats in B.C. becomes less of a priority.
Mulcair may well be the first-ever NDP leader with a realistic shot at eventually becoming prime minister.
But to reach that goal, he's going to have to gore some sacred cows and keep his party together at the same time.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC.
