NORTH SHORE candidates broke out the election signs and hit the hustings as the provincial election officially got underway Tuesday.
Voters will cast their ballots in four North Shore ridings May 14, which have for the most part been considered Liberal strongholds for the past two decades.
But this time, voters head in to an election where the winds of change are blowing in many parts of the province. Recent polls put the governing Liberals trailing the NDP by 10 to 15 points across B.C.
"I think the (easiest) simplification that anyone can make is eventually all parties are defeated," said David Laycock, a professor of political science at Simon Fraser University.
"The average voter will vote not so much in favour of (a political party), but in opposition to the existing regime. It's easier to assemble a compendium of reasons for rejecting the known quantity."
When a government is in power long enough, there's a good chance it'll provide something to eventually dissatisfy a variety of voters, said Laycock. "I think the odds are very strongly stacked against (the Liberal party) at this stage."
But on the North Shore, results may not reflect provincial fortunes. Here, in three of the four ridings, voters have consistently returned Liberal MLAs - and prior to that, other right-of-centre representatives - for more than two decades.
That's not surprising, said Laycock. Voters on the North Shore ridings tend to be among the most affluent in the province and voters with higher incomes usually elect centre-right representatives.
Average family incomes in North Vancouver-Seymour, West Vancouver-Capilano and West Vancouver -Sea to Sky ridings are between $109,000 and $118,000, compared to a B.C. average of about $67,000.
Between 74 per cent and 81 per cent of people in those electoral districts also own their own homes, compared to 70 per cent across B.C.
The most closely fought and watched battle on the North Shore this election is likely to shape up in North Vancouver-Lonsdale, where incumbent Liberal MLA and minister of state for small business Naomi Yamamoto will go up against heavyweight NDP challenger Craig Keating, a City of North Vancouver councillor. B.C. Green candidate Ryan Conroy and B.C. Conservative Jeff Sprague are also running in the riding.
North Vancouver-Lonsdale was last won by the NDP in 1991, when David Schreck rode the NDP wave to victory with a margin of fewer than 500 votes.
At $62,000, the average family income in North Vancouver-Lonsdale is about half that of West Vancouver voters. Almost half the residents rent their homes, rather than own them.
Given the momentum against the governing party, those demographics could translate into a harder fight for the Liberals and the best chance for the NDP among the North Shore ridings, said Laycock.
In a Liberal stronghold like the North Shore, this election raises interesting questions given the possibility of an NDP government in Victoria come May 15, said Laycock.
As a member of the opposition, "You can't deliver goodies (to your riding) to nearly the extent that you were able when you were a member of the governing party," he said.
While local candidates of all stripes have already been busy pounding the pavement and knocking on doors, political commentator and former political science professor Ruff said typically voters will make their choices based on general impressions of the parties and their leaders. Incumbents have an advantage, he said, but typically less than 10 per cent of the vote is based on local candidates.
Identifying support and getting those people to the polls is key for all political parties.
Around B.C., voter turnout has been progressively sagging in provincial elections, from a high of about 70 per cent in the early 1980s to a historic low of 51 per cent in the last provincial election.
On the North Shore, voter turnout in 2009 ranged from 53 per cent of eligible voters in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky to 61 per cent in North Vancouver-Seymour.
In the past several months, Elections B.C. has made an effort to get people on the voters list by mailing out cards, going door to door in neighbourhoods which tend to have more people moving in and out of them and by setting up in community centres and shopping centres. Those who still want to register or update their information can do so online at electionsbc.gov.bc.ca/ovr or by calling toll-free 1-800-661-8683 until April 23.
Voters can also still register at the polls on election day, as long as they bring two pieces of identification that include their name and residential address.
Advance polls will be open from Wednesday, May 8 to Saturday, May 11. Voters can also vote by mail by requesting a package from their district electoral office. Registered voters can also vote in person at their district electoral office anytime between now and May 14.
Nominations for candidates officially close on Friday, April 26.
