WELL, I was wrong.
Along with pretty much everyone else - with the exception of a small B.C.
Liberal party campaign brain trust - I thought the election this week was going to produce a result exactly the opposite of what actually happened.
Polls were uniformly incorrect - in part, I think, because of their methodology, which relied too much on online research and less on old-fashioned telephone polling - and created an entrenched impression that the B.C. Liberals were too far behind in public opinion to stand much of a chance of winning.
But the election also served as a reminder that what actually happens during an election campaign matters, and can shape the outcome of the vote.
The shorthand is this: the B.C. Liberals ran a masterful campaign, while the NDP's campaign totally flopped.
That statement applies to both the central campaign, which is wrapped around the party leader, and the local campaign, which is responsible for identifying supporters and getting them to the polls.
The B.C. Liberals' campaign was harshly negative towards the NDP, and filled with inaccuracies about their track record and achievements. Yet there was also a positive tone to it as well, and it obviously appealed to voters.
For all the ridicule heaped on Christy Clark by myself and others for her fantastical promise to retire the province's enormous pile of debt through the creation of liquefied natural gas terminals, it's clear that people bought into at least part of that message because it was about the future.
Clark and her party had a central campaign theme and stuck to it, relentlessly hammering home the idea that they alone could be trusted on economic issues.
In stark contrast to the B.C. Liberals' clarity and consistency was the inept NDP campaign, which was unfocused and over-confident. Party leader Adrian Dix's sudden announcement that the party opposed the Kinder Morgan pipeline proposal helped cement the idea the NDP was opposed to economic development.
The NDP also decided not to hold the B.C. Liberals accountable for a number of scandals and controversies. The B.C. Liberals, on the other hand, attacked Dix's character and honesty. One approach was positive and disastrous; the other was nasty and effective.
This election campaign had been underway pretty well from the moment Clark and Dix took over their party's leadership, but only became intense and focused during the 28-day writ period.
Clark can now stop campaigning and focus on governing. She has rebuilt her party and renewed her caucus. Half of them are first-time MLAs, many of them with experience at the municipal politics level.
Past controversies - the HST being the most notable - have now been wiped clean from the slate. The people have spoken and have sent an unmistakable message: Clark and her party are the ones they trust, and not the NDP.
Two years ago, shortly after Clark and Dix became leaders, I spoke at a business gathering and held up that now-famous Province newspaper photo of a beaming Christy Clark wearing a Vancouver Canucks jersey and a picture of Dix looking uncomfortable in an ill-fitting suit.
I suggested that campaigns were all about themes and images, and that the contrast in those photos was indication of the enormous advantage Clark had over Dix.
Since then, of course, Clark faltered time and again as premier, while Dix patiently bided his time as he watched what appeared to be a government going over a cliff. My original assessment of Clark's strengths had been replaced by doubts of her leadership.
But then the actual campaign began. And the differences between the two leaders was magnified and put on display.
It came down to a choice between a beaming, bouncy and positive woman and a serious, uncomfortable and uninspiring man. The result shows voters didn't really care what happened in the past two years, and were more concerned about the future.
In the end, they went with that beaming woman in the Canucks jersey over the unsmiling fellow they didn't really know.
Christy Clark now has been given a mandate by the people and even though only about half the electorate voted, it's a strong one.
She proved to be a dynamic political campaigner and her challenge now is to show she's also an effective governor. But until she falters, she should be given the benefit of the doubt and the chance to show her stuff.
And I'm not wrong about that.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC.
