THE federal government's decidedly right-ward shift has some potentially big implications for British Columbia and whichever party forms the next government here.
It also has the chance of making the political tightrope Premier Christy Clark has been walking when it comes to relations with the Harper government that much trickier to navigate.
Many have long wondered just how rightwing Prime Minister Stephen Harper was, and the early indications after the last election are that he has moved his government to a footing that is more to the hard right than anything seen previously.
Emboldened by the fact that he now has a solid majority in the House of Commons, Harper seems prepared to shape policies more along ideological lines than anything else.
For example, his new tough-on-crime legislation appeases those in the party who advocate a much more conservative approach to law enforcement.
But it flies in the face of statistics that show the crime rate is actually dropping and that some long-held conservative crime-fighting policies (i.e. the failing war on drugs) don't work.
The legislation also means added costs for provinces that administer most of the criminal justice system.
British Columbia is already struggling with a lack of judges and sheriffs (to name just two areas of concern), and putting even more people through the system means more funding will be required.
But provincial governments shouldn't look for much help from Ottawa if the Harper government's action in another key policy area - health care - is any indication.
Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty recently announced a new policy regarding future health funding transfers from Ottawa to the provinces.
The impact of the new policy won't be felt much for the next few years.
But starting in 2016, the federal share of health care funding will be tied directly to the performance of the country's economy.
This will inevitably mean fewer dollars going out the door to the provinces.
There's no sign healthcare costs are going to decrease anytime soon, so any shortfall will have to be covered by - guess who? - the provincial governments.
Flaherty's policy also suggests the Harper government may be less interested in maintaining a strong public healthcare system, which would certainly fit a right-wing perspective.
One has to wonder whether that government will weaken the Canada Health Act to allow for such things as user fees and an even larger presence of private health care.
This brings me to that political tightrope Clark is walking.
While most provincial finance ministers blasted Flaherty for his arbitrary cuts to their funding, B.C. Finance Minister Kevin Falcon was warmly supportive, lauding the fact Flaherty had brought "certainty" to the situation.
It wasn't hard to connect some dots here.
The Clark government's survival in the next provincial election is likely directly tied to ensuring it doesn't lose significant support among conservative voters.
Therefore, fighting with a federal Conservative government is fraught with peril, which may explain Falcon's positive reaction.
It will be interesting to see whether the Clark government can hold back if Flaherty's next budget contains a lot of aggressive cost-cutting measures, which could have an impact on federal services in this province.
The Clark government may suffer collateral damage from any significant public outcry over federal spending cuts, and of course that may compound problems arising from the next provincial budget, which isn't expected to be very rosy either.
And who knows what other policies will arise from Harper's right-wing direction?
One thing to keep an eye on is the proposed Enbridge pipeline to Kitimat.
It appears his government does not view environmental protection as a top priority (given its abandonment of the Kyoto accord), and that may be another signal the government will push for the pipeline's construction.
On another front, British Columbia's main representative in the federal cabinet - the capable James Moore - was quick to shoot down a Conservative backbencher's suggestion they outlaw abortion, which suggests the religious right has yet to gain a foothold in the government.
But the Tea Party types that no doubt exist among the Conservative faithful may sense that, with a majority in place, now is the time to push for those policies Harper wouldn't go near when he needed support from New Democrats and Liberals.
Now Harper holds all the cards. The opposition parties are leaderless and have uncertain futures.
We shall have to wait to see how far he goes, and how big an impact his policies have on this province.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC
Keith.Baldrey@globalnews.ca
