B.C.'s international vessel traffic could more than double by 2040 if a series of marine transport and resources projects are completed, says a new study.
Liquified natural gas projects along B.C.’s coastline, like LNG Canada and Ksi Lisims LNG, will be the main drivers of traffic growth among the study’s 16 projects, according to a May 28 vessel traffic forecast by non-profit Clear Seas.
Other developments include several expansion projects to existing container terminals along the coast, like the Roberts Bank Terminal 2 project in Delta. The study excludes cruise ship traffic.
If the projects proceed as planned, round-trip traffic—entry to a B.C. port and exit—could increase from the current 3,186 yearly vessels to 5,299, said the study.
This is an increase of 66 per cent over the next 15 years.
Trade disruptions and growing competition from Alaskan LNG projects have led industry experts to call on the B.C. government for better permitting and urgency.
Petronas Energy Canada Ltd. CEO Mark Fitzgerald said last month there might only be an 18-month window for B.C. to drive investment and fill the global need for LNG.
He said at a Greater Vancouver Board of Trade event that one of B.C.’s main advantages is its proximity to Asia.
According to Fitzgerald, it takes 20 days for a shipment of LNG to leave the U.S. Gulf Coast, go through the Panama Canal and cross into Eastern Asia. That time is cut in half for shipments from Canada’s West Coast, he said, something that should give the country a competitive advantage.
Tanker-type vessel traffic is projected to have the most significant uptick over the next 15 years, increasing by 610 per cent from 258 yearly vessels to 1,834. The increase in this vessel type is driven primarily by LNG tankers, according to the Clear Seas report.
This is followed by container-type vessels, which are projected to increase by 58 per cent from 867 yearly vessels to 1,372.
B.C.’s North Coast region is also expected to see an increase, with vessel traffic forecasted to increase by 217 per cent from 529 yearly vessels to 1,676 in the region. This will be largely caused by development projects in Kitimat and Prince Rupert that will facilitate traffic between Canada and Asia, said the report.
But despite the proximity advantage, Fitzgerald said stringent policies and delays are clouding B.C. from capitalizing on the LNG opportunity.
“When we go to the board of Petronas to talk about investment in Canada, the very first thing that’s always [said] is: Canada does not want energy investment,” he said last month.
Fitzgerald said Canada has been clear on reducing energy supply, decarbonization and shrinking its global role in energy supply, and if assessments aren’t streamlined, delays could drive investments away to Alaska.
Petronas Canada owns 25 per cent of the LNG Canada plant in Kitimat, an $18-billion facility that took roughly six years to build and will begin operating in a matter of weeks, according to Fitzgerald.
Connected to the Coastal GasLink Pipeline, which runs from Dawson Creek to Kitimat, the facility’s Phase 1 will export 13 million tonnes of LNG per year. According to the Clear Seas report, the project would receive up to 250 LNG carriers per year.
A Phase 2 expansion is pending, and could double the facility’s capacity to 26 million tonnes of LNG per year.
