The steady stream of government announcements might have been your first clue. As sure as barbecue season looms on the political horizon, this fall’s federal election is lumbering into view.
Much remains to be seen about whether the fallout from the SNC-Lavalin scandal or Jody Wilson-Raybould’s ouster from caucus will impact the choices of voters who were under the thrall of Trudeau’s “sunny ways” last time around.
Trudeau promised to do things differently, then proceeded to do things the same way governments have for decades.
But whether the Liberals’ political luster has been fatally tarnished is very much up in the air. And regardless of what national polls show, it’s the riding-by-riding results that count.
For any party that hopes to form a majority, areas like the North Shore – and other big metropolitan suburbs – remain key. Voters here have proven remarkably fickle.
In North Vancouver, a potential rematch is shaping up between the candidates who carried the Liberal and Conservative banners the last time around. In West Vancouver, bets are off with the news that Liberal MP Pam Goldsmith-Jones won’t seek re-election.
The wild cards of the NDP under a new leader and the upward fortunes of the Greens, plus the shifting sands of provincial politics could also prove key.
One thing that’s clear: whatever we guess now, it’s likely to change a lot as we creep towards October. Issues that are top of mind today might not be by the time an election comes our way.
A week is a long time in politics. Six months is an eternity.
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