What are the odds? Well, I have a one in 12,000 chance of finding a pearl in an oyster. I have a one in 3,748,067 chance of being attacked by a shark as I comb the beach for my lucky oyster.
I have a one in 10,000 chance of finding a four-leaf clover to aid in the search, odds that aren’t improving even as we come close to St. Patrick’s Day.
And I have a six to 10 per cent chance of living to 100, so I still have some time to find that pearl.
But even if I do live to 100, what are the odds I’ll live to see the completion of a North Shore rapid transit line? About as good as they are of becoming a billionaire, I’ll wager.
Precisely zero.
We’re waiting for the train that will never come no matter how many four-leaf clovers we have in our pockets.
It’s tempting to be fooled by a recent announcement from the provincial government outlining six options for rapid transit connecting Vancouver and the North Shore. I mean, it looks promising – the putative project even comes with an official sounding name: Burrard Inlet Rapid Transit, or BIRT. (Where’s Ernie?)
The eternally optimistic Bowinn Ma, MLA for North Vancouver-Lonsdale, has been quick to jump on the platform, maintaining the proposed routes are more than just lines on a drawing.
The trouble is, that’s exactly what they are.
It’s as if the province sees gridlock-weary North Shore commuters as a giant grumpy kitten and they’re tossing us a ball they hope will keep us busy until it occurs to us it doesn’t matter if we favour Burnaby to Lonsdale via Second Narrows, or downtown Vancouver via First Narrows, or Kits Point to West Van via rowboat because none of that is going to happen.
What’s going to happen, I fear, is that the North Shore will be stuck with the same nine lanes connecting the rest of the Lower Mainland to the North Shore that we’ve had to endure since 1962, when there were nine cars on the road, each one getting its own lane.
OK, that’s not quite true, but you get the idea.
As for the six options, none of them yet come with a price tag; that’s for Chapter 2, due this summer. We’re being asked to discuss options without knowing the price. If you have to ask, you can’t afford it, I guess.
Of course, we’ll find out that any of the six routes will cost billions and billions because that’s what they cost. So the chances of any one gaining the approval of the Mayors’ Council is roughly the same as my chance of becoming a billionaire. A running theme in this column.
Consider: Three of the options require a tunnel to be dug from downtown under Stanley Park. The odds of that happening? About the same as getting attacked by a shark as you search for a pearl-bearing oyster on Third Beach.
Actually, the option that employs the existing Second Narrows crossing is distinctly feasible, but – reality check – there are already billions earmarked for rapid transit from Surrey to Nowhere, and if that’s not daunting enough, there’s the feverishly anticipated Skytrain along the Broadway corridor to Arbutus, and once they make it that far, do you think anyone’s going to stop them from going all the way to UBC?
That’s the real priority. You can bet your lucky shamrock on that, boyo.
Even if the feds have any money left after buying that pipeline, even if the Mayor’s Council approves BIRT with or without Ernie, the first pile of dirt won’t get shifted for more than a decade, and I won’t be able to use my Compass Card to get home until sometime after 2050. That’s if I beat the odds and live to be 100. That’s if I can remember where I live when I’m 100.
Bowinn Ma, perhaps sensing our impatience, acknowledges that we’re stuck in traffic now. And how. Still, she sees this exercise as a means of building a case for rapid transit to the North Shore.
What are the odds she’ll convince other Metro Vancouver politicians with tunnel and bridge issues of their own that the North Shore should jump the queue and get moving before they do?
Are they greater than being struck by lightning? (One in 700,000.)
I’ll tell you one thing. If Bowinn Ma is able to make the traffic move again, it will be a miracle, and I’ll nominate her for elevation to sainthood.
The odds of that happening? Only one in 20 million.
Journalist and communications consultant Paul Sullivan has been a North Van resident since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the rise of Madonna. [email protected]
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