As the COVID-19 virus tightens its grip over B.C. in the coming weeks, it would be wise to remember some reassuring words from provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry.
“Remember, this is not forever,” she likes to say at her daily media briefings. “We’re going to get through this.”
The impact of the virus on the social fabric of B.C. will be substantial. Brace yourself not only for poor health outcomes for many but for overall economic damage as well.
“The next four weeks will likely dwarf anything we’ve seen over the last four weeks,” Health Minister Adrian Dix has told me. “We have a rapidly evolving situation.”
So far, COVID-19 has not left much of a mark. However, over the next month and likely beyond, its reach will be felt in all kinds of ways.
We have already seen the suspension – temporarily, we hope – of the seasons for both minor and major league sports. However inconvenient and disappointing that development is for many, it will likely be seen over time as a rather small matter compared to many others.
For example, as of this column’s writing, it seems certain that classes will be cancelled in B.C. schools for an indefinite period after spring break ends.
Think of the impact that will have on parents forced to scramble for childcare in the middle of a pandemic.
It is not even clear whether the legislature will resume sitting as scheduled next week. Government House Leader Mike Farnworth tells me he is weighing options. Complicating matters is that the government technically runs out of money to spend by April 1, unless a supply bill is passed by the house or unless the government reverts to using “special spending warrants” signed by cabinet.
Now, whether the legislature sits or not is likely not too big a deal for most folks. However, the potential closures of many other facilities and services will be of larger concern.
Already, a number of cities and municipalities have closed their rec centers, ice rinks, libraries, galleries and pools. Daycares may shut their doors.
Depending on how fast and wide the virus spreads, public transit could be a question mark. International travel now faces severe restrictions and even inter-provincial travel could be shut down.
Many small businesses will feel the economic pinch and layoffs – again, hopefully only temporary ones – appear to be inevitable. Pressure will build on the federal and provincial governments to develop financial aid packages for employees forced to self-isolate for 14 days and who don’t have access to paid sick days.
Do not be surprised if signs emerge that the virus will dash any hopes of the B.C. government balancing its budget in the coming year. Government taxation revenues will no doubt slide downward, particularly if we head into a global recession, as many economists believe will happen.
Given the host of potential problems associated with COVID-19, I doubt the public will even care if the budget slips into deficit. There will be more pressing problems to face.
However, the biggest fear is that COVID-19 could overwhelm our health-care system, particularly when it comes to hospitals. Dr. Henry is cautiously optimistic it will not, but we are just now at the beginning of the outbreak.
Already, all non-emergency surgeries have been cancelled or rescheduled. The waiting lists just grew extensively.
The “numbers” in the B.C. government’s influenza pandemic co-ordination plan are taken from what happened when COVID-19 took over a province in China.
The good news is that about 80 per cent of those who contracted the virus experienced only mild symptoms. However, the truly frightening statistic is that five per cent of the cases there were classified as “critical,” which can require hospitalization.
To put that in a British Columbia context, if only a third of our population become ill from COVID-19 (a low estimate compared to many) and that five per cent “critical” rate was maintained here, that would capture some 80,000 people (we have less than 9,000 hospital beds).
Let’s hope the China experience with COVID-19 is not even remotely repeated here.
It is going to be a trying month in many ways, but as Dr. Henry says, we’re going to get through this.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC
