As it increasingly looks like the federal government will approve the Kinder Morgan pipeline project, it will be interesting to see how the B.C. political parties react to the decision and how it will factor into next spring’s election outcome.
Of the parties with seats in the legislature, only the B.C. Greens have a clear position. They oppose it outright, full stop.
The B.C. Liberals have set the stage for offering their own conditional approval of the project, subject to its five conditions being met. But if they are not met by the time the vote rolls around, the party can hardly change its position and suddenly support it.
Two conditions are lacking: a clear sense of what would constitute a fair economic return for the province, and a world-class marine spill response system. It’s conceivable both could be in place by next spring, but if they are not, the B.C. Liberals will have to continue their non-support for the pipeline.
But it is the New Democratic Party that has the biggest challenge if the Trudeau government does indeed green-light the contentious pipeline.
Just how volatile the issue is for New Democrats was illustrated last week when party leader John Horgan, in a series of interviews with various media outlets, said he could be “persuaded” to back the project under certain and unspecified conditions.
He also said he wouldn’t take a final position until all the details of any government approval were known. Such a cautious approach, he said, was the proper one to take by “public figures and people in responsible positions,” and that included people like himself, since he is hoping to become premier next spring.
He said he “would look at the facts when they come forward and deliberate with those involved and see how they feel and then come forward with a position” on any federal approval.
All well and good. A responsible response by a leader who wants to see all the facts before saying yay or nay to a substantial project. Excellent!
Except for one problem: the NDP is on record as being adamantly opposed to the project. Horgan, who emphasized he doesn’t think the project, at the moment, merits his support nevertheless opened the door just a crack to keep that option open.
But his comments were met with outrage on social media, as the environmental side of his party went ballistic over him even suggesting keeping an open mind on the issue. Less than 24 hours later, Horgan was forced to recant on Twitter, saying the project could not go forward because it was too risky.
Horgan’s background has a heavy dose of experience in the energy sector of the provincial government. In the 1990s, he was special adviser to then-NDP Energy Minister Dan Miller and later his chief of staff when he became interim premier.
On their watch, the seeds were sown for what would become a flourishing oil and gas sector in B.C., one that built pipelines. So it’s no surprise Horgan doesn’t want to slam the door completely shut on that sector, but he has been reminded that the environmental wing of the NDP — and not the leader — determines any course of action on that front.
In the meantime, the B.C. Liberals delightedly sit back and watch, knowing their chief opponent has some serious internal divisions when it comes to energy development.
When it comes to economic issues (which include the energy sector), the B.C. Liberals have a track record, for better or worse. Supporters will point to balanced budgets, an economic growth rate that leads the nation, the lowest unemployment rate in the country, and big job creation projects such as the Site C dam.
So if they end up not supporting the Kinder Morgan project because it doesn’t meet their five conditions, the B.C. Liberals have that track record to fall back on.
The NDP, on the other hand, has precious little substance (so far) in its economic platform. So blocking a pipeline project may shore up its environmental street cred, but does nothing to help build its economic credibility.
And economic issues usually trump environmental ones when people go to cast their ballots.
Any federal approval of Kinder Morgan may yet give the B.C. Liberals pause, but it’s potentially a much more vexing problem for New Democrats.
Global TV's political correspondent Keith Baldrey writes every Friday on provincial issues. [email protected]
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