The next provincial election is just 10 months away, and a handful of issues seem to be emerging as the ones that may have the biggest impact on the vote’s outcome.
These are the ones getting more media coverage — and therefore are being put in front of the voters to a greater extent — than others. The list may change in the months ahead, of course, but for now these are the Top Six:
Megaprojects
Both the Site C dam and the Massey Bridge are highly controversial and neatly provide a contrast between the two major parties. The B.C. Liberals, of course, are enthusiastic backers of both projects while the NDP opposes the dam and is critical of the bridge to replace the aging Massey Tunnel.
The two projects are aligned with contradictory economic and environmental values, which should provide a clear choice for voters. The B.C. Liberals view Site C as the kind of issue that divides the NDP constituency, as it pits environmentalists against jobs.
Adding some spice to the bridge debate is the fact that almost all Metro Vancouver mayors oppose the project, which may nudge the NDP into outright opposition to it.
Housing affordability
While not a province-wide issue, it is a big one in Metro Vancouver, where about seven B.C. Liberal-held ridings could tip the NDP’s way if enough voters think the B.C. government isn’t doing enough to address the lack of affordable housing in the region.
After taking her time, Premier Christy Clark seems to have hit upon a game plan on this front, and is rolling it out one step and one policy at a time. She has 10 months to earn credibility on this issue. So far she’s been upstaged by NDP housing critic David Eby, who seems to be crafting NDP policy in this area all by himself.
K-12 education
There’s a lot of noise being made in the education arena (the latest fight being the annual dustup between the Vancouver School Board and the government), but it’s not clear whether it will translate to having a big impact on the election. Most voters don’t have children in the school system and voter turnout during school board elections is notoriously low. Nevertheless, passions run high in this area so it’s one to keep an eye on.
Resource development
Another wedge issue between the pro-development B.C. Liberals and the mostly anti-development NDP. It’s also an issue that plays differently outside of Metro Vancouver than within urban areas, and it should solidify the B.C. Liberals’ hold on its up-country seats (but may make some of their loosely-held urban ones more vulnerable).
The B.C. Liberals will emphasize this issue in the days ahead, while the NDP will try to avoid it altogether. Even calling out the B.C. Liberals for not delivering on their lofty promises regarding an LNG industry holds some risk for New Democrats.
Crime
It’s a big issue in a vital battleground area: Surrey, where there will now be nine ridings up for grabs (an addition of one). At least two of those ridings could swing to either party, so it will be interesting how the two sides address the issue of personal safety in the months ahead.
Leadership
Premier Christy Clark is well known of course, and is a polarizing figure. Most people pretty much have their minds made up about where she stands with them. She’s seen as either a youthful, positive pro-jobs leader, or as a maddeningly shallow one beholden to special interests. There’s not much middle ground with her.
On the other hand, her counterpart, NDP leader John Horgan, is not well known and needs to prove himself. Oddly, he eschews most media and prefers to seek coverage in the scatter-shot blogosphere, where there are fewer voters and which can become a giant echo-chamber.
This can be both an opportunity or a landmine for Horgan. The B.C. Liberals will be trying hard to define him along very negative lines (i.e. labeling him as old and mean and not in control of his own party), so Horgan has to work hard to define himself along terms he’s comfortable with (such as, he’s a new kind of leader).
And he better get to work fairly quickly.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC. He can be reached via email at [email protected].
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