With only four days to go until the federal election, polls of local riding voters are pointing to a close race between Liberal and Conservative candidates in North Vancouver and West Vancouver, with Liberals leading in both.
But the polls – released by Insights West and Mainstreet-Postmedia – didn’t agree on what’s happening in the volatile riding of Burnaby North – Seymour, with one putting the Conservative candidate in the lead, while the other showed the NDP as the front-runner.
Polls also point to a large number of undecided voters who could still make up a wildcard on election day.
Insights West conducted live phone polls in the three North Shore ridings for the Dogwood Initiative between Oct 5 and 10.
The poll asked 400 adults in each of the ridings: “If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of these candidates would you support?”
The polls are considered accurate plus or minus 4.9 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
Undecideds were pegged at 19 per cent in both North Vancouver ridings and 15 per cent in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country.
The Insights West poll showed Liberal candidate Pamela Goldsmith-Jones at 42 per cent of decided voters with a nine-point lead over Conservative candidate John Weston at 31 per cent. The poll showed NDP candidate Larry Koopman had slipped to 14 per cent of decided voters and Green Party candidate Ken Melamed at 13 per cent.
The increase in Liberal support among decided voters is part of a national trend that has seen Liberals gain mostly at the expense of the NDP, said Mario Canseco, vice-president of public affairs for Insights West.
The poll pointed to a similar trend in North Vancouver, which put support for Liberal candidate Jonathan Wilkinson at 41 per cent among decided voters, an eight point lead over Conservative Andrew Saxton at 33 per cent. The poll showed a rise in support among decided voters for Green Party candidate Claire Martin to 15 per cent and a fall in support for NDP candidate Carleen Thomas to 11 per cent.
A separate poll conducted in the West Vancouver riding by Mainstreet/Postmedia asked: “Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?” The results showed similar results in West Vancouver, which handily returned Weston to a Conservative seat in the last 2011 election.
That poll put the Liberals ahead by five points in West Vancouver, 37 per cent to the Conservatives’ 32 per cent among decided voters. The poll put the NDP at 15 per cent and the Greens at 16 per cent among decided voters.
Mainstreet polled 673 adults in the West Vancouver riding by automated phone poll on Oct. 9 and 10. The poll is considered accurate plus or minus 3.76 per cent 19 times out of 20. Mainstreet president Quito Maggi said the poll is reflective of national trends. He added the surge in support for the Green Party in West Vancouver could also have an impact on election results in the riding.
But the two polls gave differing snapshots of the election race in the Burnaby North-Seymour riding, meaning it could be too close to call. Insights West polled 400 adults in the riding by phone Oct 5 to 10. That poll is considered accurate within plus or minus 4.9 percent, 19 times out of 20. That poll has the NDP’s Carol Baird Ellan hanging on to a very narrow lead at 36 per cent among decided voters over the Conservatives’ Mike Little at 33 per cent, a difference within the poll’s margin of error. The poll put the Liberals’ Terry Beech at 21 per cent and the Greens’ Lynne Quarmby at nine per cent among decided voters.
The Mainstreet poll put the Conservatives out front among decided voters at 38 per cent, and the Liberals and NDP tied neck-and-neck for second place at 27 per cent and 26 per cent respectively. The poll put the Greens at nine per cent.
That poll was done among 716 voters in the riding Oct.9 and 10 and is considered accurate plus or minus 3.65 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
“Normally a lead of this size would be a lock” for the Conservatives, said Maggi, but “both the Liberals and NDP are strong in this particular riding.” Much could depend on how the vote actually splits between Liberal and NDP voters as well as the strength of the parties’ get-out-the-vote campaigns – which Conservatives are typically best at.
Neither Maggi nor Canseco could explain the widely differing poll results in the riding, although critics of election polls point to the way polls are weighted, and even the method used to reach voters as factors that can all skew results. “We do our absolute best to be as accurate as we possibly can,” said Maggi, noting pollsters often get attacked during elections “just for releasing numbers.”
Maggi said he believes polls capture, rather than influence, public opinion. Four days is still time for things to change in politics, he said, adding he’s seen party fortunes swing by six to eight percentage points in a single day.
The three North Shore ridings are among the B.C. ridings Maggi said he’ll be watching closely on Monday evening because they could well determine “who forms government and what type of government,” he said.
See full survey results at mainstreetresearch.ca and insightswest.com.
