AT least one weather forecaster is predicting a cold snowy winter for the Lower Mainland, news that has local ski mountains cheering.
Arctic air coming down from the north, combined with another La Nina year could add up to one of the three coldest winters in two decades, the U.S.-based AccuWeather network is predicting.
Local ski mountains are already enthusiastically embracing the forecast.
"Last year was a La Nina year. We saw over 45 feet of snow" compared to 30 feet in an average year, said Joffrey Koeman, director of sales and marketing for Cypress Mountain. "We're looking forward to that again."
Last year's La Nina snow bonanza at higher altitudes allowed ski hills to open early in November and stay open right into April.
Some of the best snow conditions ever also happened after back-to-back La Nina years, said Koeman.
La Nina - the weather phenomenon driving the icy predictions - happens when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific fall below normal. It often results in cold weather during winter on the West Coast because of its influence on the jet stream.H
Environment Canada hasn't come out with a similar prediction, although the organization's two-to four-month models are also predicting lower than normal temperatures.
But not all meteorologists are convinced that La Nina means big snowfalls.
David Jones, meteorologist with Environment Canada, is one of those who won't be rushing out to buy snowshoes and an extra shovel.
While a mild to moderate La Nina pattern does mean "the dice are loaded in favour of a colder winter", he said precipitation is much harder to predict with accuracy.
"Yes, winter's coming," he said. "There might be some snowstorms. There might be some cold periods. . . ."
But beyond that, "Can we tell you anything of value about what's going to happen?" he said. "For the most part, we can't."
Weather on the West Coast can only usually be predicted five to nine days in advance, he said.
"There's a mythology out there that we can tell you what the weather is going to be like this winter."
While such predictions don't affect most people, "I deal with emergency planners and people who are about to spend money based on long-range forecasts and they ought to know about accuracy of those long-range forecasts," he said.
Jones said back-to-back La Ninas have happened about five times since 1950 and there is no discernable trend resulting in extremely low temperatures.
Last year's cold snap didn't really take effect until February, he said - but it lasted right until June.
