As we move into a new year, it's clear that while both of B.C.'s major political parties face significant challenges on the horizon, they are much different from each other.
For Premier Christy Clark and the B.C. Liberals, a top concern in the coming year is ensuring (or at least hoping) the provincial economy grows and does not falter. On top of that, Clark needs strong evidence that a liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry really will set down roots in this province.
Many people say Clark has gone "all in" on LNG, but it's more accurate to say she's gone all-in on the economy. Her government's three-year fiscal plan actually doesn't contain any revenues from LNG operations, and that likely will remain the case for at least a couple more years after that.
But she needs her government to balance its budget every year, which means other industries and the overall tax base must remain strong and growing. The coming fiscal year projects another budget surplus, which is predicated in part by a big increase in sales tax revenues, even though that revenue stream actually slumped this year.
But barring a major setback in the global economy, there is no worry the budget will slip into a deficit from its projected surplus of around $500 million. That should insulate Clark and her government from any wrath from the people who voted them into power in the first place.
Of course, the B.C. Liberals will continue to battle the environmental movement in the coming year, which suits them just fine. And Clark's government will continue to be charged with ignoring such issues as child poverty, the "clawback" of child support payments for those on disability assistance, and social services in general.
But the Liberals were voted into office on the strength of their economic appeal, not because they were seen as kind and generous to those less well off. So don't look for this political leopard to change its spots anytime soon.
The challenges facing John Horgan and his New Democratic Party are something else altogether.
The party continues to try to sort itself out after the bruising election defeat in 2013. The caucus has yet to regain its footing, and Horgan is still a relatively unknown quantity among voters.
One of the more immediate challenges will arise early in the year if either of the two MLAs seeking the federal nomination in the Vancouver East riding actually win it. Mable Elmore and Jenny Kwan are squaring off for the seat, and if one of them departs as a result it will mean a new face will eventually emerge in the NDP caucus. But will that potential newcomer reflect the direction Horgan wants to take the party, or one others want to take it?
Horgan is trying to steer the party towards a platform that is more business friendly, and more accepting of development (although I can't find a specific major resource project the NDP actually supports).
For example, the NDP actually voted in favour of the B.C. Liberals' LNG tax legislation in the past session. This appears to have infuriated many environmentalists. As well,
Horgan hasn't dismissed building the Site C dam out of hand. He just doesn't see the need to build it now.
As I've pointed out before, this development versus the environment issue is the one issue that could explode in the face of the NDP.
Horgan's chief task in the coming year - and well beyond that - is to figure out a way of appearing credible on economic issues, while still keeping the increasingly vocal green flank of his party in check.
This will be very hard for him to do. The environmental wing wants to shut down most resource developments - pipelines, mines, port developments -which is a position, if adopted by the NDP, that is guaranteed to translate into electoral disaster once voters go to the polls again.
Can Horgan keep this increasingly shaky coalition together in the coming year?
And can the provincial economy continue to post moderate gains in the months ahead?
The answers to those questions will begin to shape the outcome of the next provincial election, even if that is still a long ways away. [email protected]
