VANCOUVER'S film crews are pinning their hopes this year on a 12-year-old demigod and man with adamantium claws.
The two superheroes, the title characters in the upcoming Percy Jackson and Wolverine movie sequels, are among a host of famous faces the industry hopes to see on set here in 2012 - bringing with them thousands of jobs and hundreds of millions in revenue - but the outlook remains uncertain.
"Looking ahead, we seem to be in a fairly good position at the beginning of the year," said Paul Klassen, a spokesman for the B.C. chapter of the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees, which represents many of the province's film workers. "I certainly expect this year to be better than last."
Klassen cautioned that with months to go before the shooting season gets into full swing, it's impossible to say with certainty how many productions will come to town, but he said it would be difficult not to beat 2011's disappointing turnout.
Much of the Lower Mainland's studio space had been booked solid at the beginning of last year, forcing a number of late-coming projects to go elsewhere, he said, but then several of the big productions that had made the bookings - including the Wolverine sequel and a major picture for Universal called Oblivion - pulled out at the last minute, leaving the local industry holding the bag, he said.
"We just had a number of bad coincidences one after another last year," said Klassen.
Such a run of bad luck is unlikely to happen again, however, he said, meaning 2012 should see an upswing.
In addition to the Percy Jackson sequel and Wolverine - which is expected to return for a second try - other productions circling Hollywood North include another Planet of the Apes remake, a Fantastic Voyage remake, a feature called The Seventh Son and a new entry in the Superman franchise.
Numerous big projects, most of them in television, are already underway. ABC's Once Upon a Time, Fox's Alcatraz, CW's The Secret Circle, NBC's Fairly Legal, Dreamworks' Falling Skies and AMC's The Killing, Fox's Fringe - among others - are all in production, many of them on the North Shore.
Other industry players share Klassen's cautious optimism.
"Anecdotally, it's looking good for 2012," said B.C. film commissioner Susan Croome.
Tom Rowe, a partner at North Vancouver's Reunion Pictures, had a similarly upbeat take. "Our company is doing well this year; everything looks quite promising," he said.
There have been a number of things working in the industry's favour recently, not least of them - counter intuitively - the American recession and the problems plaguing big U.S. networks. With advertising revenue down, the big broadcasters have been casting about for inexpensive content, and they've found it north of the border, he said.
Even some of the premium services have been up here bargain hunting, said Rowe.
"Whereas a few years ago, HBO would not have given the time of day to a Canadian company, I know there's a company in town that's developing somethng with them," he said. "It's a good time to be in the Canadian TV business."
Not everyone is as optimistic, however. Peter Leitch, president of North Shore Studios and chairman of the Motion Picture Production Industry Association of B.C., said his facility is relatively busy, but that bookings in the Lower Mainland as a whole are actually below normal at the moment.
"We're usually pretty full this time of year but . . . we've got quite a bit of space available right now," he said. "There's a fair number of people not working."
Leitch is hopeful the problem will be remedied as the spring pilot season gets underway, but he sees dark days farther down the road.
Leitch, who was an outspoken advocate for the HST, said the return to the old PST system in a year or so, coupled with a newly expanded tax credit system for film in Quebec and Ontario, could spell trouble for the industry.
Reunion's Rowe echoed those concerns, saying he knew directors, writers and others who had already moved to Toronto in response to the incentives there.
IATSE's Klassen, however, was less convinced B.C.'s tax handicap would spell doom in the long run. While it might be a factor for small productions, bigger projects were unlikely to base their decisions on tax breaks, he said.
"Once you get to a certain budget level, there are other considerations that are more important," said Klassen. B.C.'s wide range of locations, its technical infrastructure and its crew base will help to counterbalance tax issues, he said.
Either way, it seems unlikely the film industry will be getting any new sops from the province in the near future.
Ralph Sultan, MLA for West Vancouver-Capilano, said matching Ontario's incentives was not a realistic option.
After crunching some numbers at the end of last year, Sultan said the province concluded B.C.'s current tax credits more than pay for themselves in terms of increased economic activity - and thus increased revenue to government coffers - but that the larger incentives being offered in other jurisdictions just aren't sustainable.
"(Ontario) is running a $16-billion annual deficit; if it does not pull up its socks it's going to be ranked with Greece," he said. "Frankly, we cannot compete with the idiocy of (its) ministry of finance . . . and we won't."
B.C.'s current scheme will likely stay in place, he said, although he warned that nothing will be certain until finance minister Kevin Falcon releases the provincial budget next month.
"Never say never," said Sultan. "We have to wait until about Feb. 15 to find out how Kevin plans to balance the books."
