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Will Metro Vancouver have a hotter-than-normal summer in 2024?

Summer is looking toasty.
The Environment Canada Metro Vancouver weather forecast includes a warm July and persistently above-average months leading up to it starting in March 2024.

Metro Vancouver had record-breaking, mid-March temperatures and there may be more above-average heat this summer. 

While heat spells aren't predictable several weeks or months in advance, Environment Canada expects the Lower Mainland will be warmer than usual in the coming months. 

Following the warmest December on record and daytime highs in the mid to late teens in late January, El Niño has continued to influence weather patterns in the region through the spring.

The weather phenomenon's influence is expected to wane in April through June, transitioning to an ENSO-neutral pattern, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center.

Environment Canada meteorologist Armel Castellan says the forecast for April, May and June shows a warmer-than-average trend across the country. 

While the signal is strongest in the Arctic, monthly temperatures in the Lower Mainland are still expected to be "on the warmer side but the probabilities aren't quite as extreme," he tells V.I.A.

Metro Vancouver weather forecast includes a warm July 

And the warmer-than-average trend isn't expected to let up heading into the rest of summer. Continuing into July, "there is an 80 per cent probability that it is looking warmer."

While the warmth might excite eager beach-goers, there is an elevated risk for wildfires, particularly if B.C. doesn't receive more rainfall.

"The bigger picture is the precipitation deficit," Castellan cautions, adding that April's forecast includes a "hint of dryness." 

The B.C. River Forecast Centre provides the public updates on B.C.'s snowpack at the end of each survey period. While the last update showed improvement across the province, the South Coast has only 40 per cent of the normal supply.

"There's a lot of concern for populated zones that are having to anticipate these seasons and [the threat level] will hinge on the precipitation," Castellan notes. 

Stay up-to-date with hyperlocal forecasts across 50 neighbourhoods in the Lower Mainland with V.I.A.'s Weatherhood.