New polling shows 56 per cent of Conservative Party of Canada supporters are presently intending to vote for the Conservative Party of B.C., with BC United trailing in support with just a 29 per cent share.
The Angus Reid Institute polling comes as the landscape for so-called 'small c' conservative support shifts in B.C. ahead of the scheduled Oct. 19, 2024 provincial election.
BC United, led by Kevin Falcon, is the official opposition of the BC NDP, having officially rebranded from the BC Liberal Party in spring 2023.
The BC Liberals enjoyed a 16-year run in Victoria, stationing itself as a centre-right coalition of federal Conservative and Liberal supporters. It was ousted in 2017 after then Premier Cristy Clark was unseated by incoming BC NDP Premier John Horgan, who’s minority government signed a confidence and supply agreement with the BC Green Party.
Meanwhile, the Conservative Party of BC is led by John Rustad, who was ousted by Falcon in 2022 and was acclaimed leader of the relatively dormant provincial conservative party in March 2023. Rustad, the Nechako Lakes MLA, was joined by Abbotsford South MLA Bruce Banman last September. The BC Conservatives now enjoy two seats in Victoria and hence party status heading into the election.
Rustad’s party fielded just 19 candidates in 2020 and garnered only 1.9 per cent of the popular vote (NDP – 47.7 per cent; BC Liberal — 33.8 per cent; Green — 15.1 per cent).
“The electoral map will be unfamiliar to B.C. — and indeed, national — politicos. For many years, the province had lacked an obvious right-wing, small ‘c’ conservative party contender,” noted Angus Reid.
But despite the support in the polls, BC United still enjoys far more fundraising support than the BC Conservatives: last year, Falcon’s party took in $2.98 million in donations as compared to the $433,000 donated to Rustad’s party.
But while trailing in the fundraising the BC Conservatives have still increased their donations five-fold from the prior year, noted Angus Reid.
The pollster noted there is chatter about “brand confusion” amidst the conservative crowd in B.C.
“’Brand confusion’ or not, Rustad and the BC Conservatives hold a lead among federal Conservatives despite Rustad himself being less of a known commodity among right-leaning voters. Two in five federal Conservative supporters say they don’t know Rustad, but those that do are more positive than not in their views,” stated Angus Reid.
It is clear from polling that the BC Conservatives are drawing much of their support from the province’s federal Conservative supporters — at a 91 per cent rate.
Angus Reid stated at least one key policy has differentiated Rustad from the rest: the carbon tax.
“As the federal Conservatives rise in popularity in the province, both Rustad and BC United leader Kevin Falcon are jockeying for right-of-centre support. Both have taken aim at the province’s carbon tax, though Falcon has only said the party will remove the tax if the CPCs form government federally and axe it nationwide,” the pollster stated.
Rustad has also differentiated his party from BC United by criticizing sexual orientation and gender identity education in B.C. schools.
It was also noted that federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has not endorsed either Falcon or Rustad.
As far as Liberal Party of Canada voters go, 57 per cent intend to vote for the BC NDP and 36 per cent intend to vote for BC United.
Overall, the poll showed provincial voter intention is split on the right and centre-right with 43 per cent supporting the BC NDP; 22 per cent supporting BC United; 22 per cent supporting the BC Conservatives; and 12 per cent supporting the BC Greens.
