January is always a time of looking forward.
For instance, many of us look at the weather forecast and decide that our New Year’s resolution to get outside more often can probably start in February instead. Or July.
It’s also the time when the annual Consumer Electronics Show is held, an event which has become more important to car companies over the years, as cars have become more complex.
Everyone’s interested in the future of driving these days, with all kinds of prognostication about when self-driving cars will get here, how soon we might see an EV revolution, and how technology like ride-sharing might continue to shape the way people live.
With that in mind, let’s all take a look at the current state of the industry, and make a few projections as to some trends we might see through 2019. In less than a year, it’ll be 2020 – what better time to catch a clear-eyed glimpse of the future.
Electric vehicles grow in popularity
One cannot discuss EVs without first taking a look at how Tesla is doing, so let’s do so. At the beginning of 2019, the company is in much better shape than it’s been previously, and is very nearly hitting production targets. Fourth quarter results for 2018 aren’t out yet, but Tesla claimed a third quarter profit of US$774-million.
Tesla is a funny company because few people seem to be able to take a reasonable position on its probable success or failure. There are all sorts of pundits who love to extrapolate Tesla’s success as a straight line where everyone’s driving an electric car in five years and Ford, Toyota, and Chevrolet are all defunct. There are also plenty of people who insist that the whole thing is just a Ponzi scheme, and Tesla is already bankrupt and just falling forward into oblivion.
The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Even if Tesla capsizes under Elon Musk’s occasionally everything-all-the-time leadership, the brand is still so strong that some other company will step in to right the ship. Tesla as a company isn’t going anywhere, though its management team will likely swap around a bit through this year.
And as for the effect of its growth, we can all expect the so-called legacy automakers to roll out greater choice for consumers through this year. At the most accessible level, that’s probably going to come from a longer-range version of the Nissan Leaf, and Hyundai/Kia’s reasonably priced EVs. Volkswagen’s ID range of electric vehicles is also on the way, and the Porsche Tacan is likely to become the unofficial-official car of West Vancouver when it finally arrives.
More importantly, this year might finally see the used-EV market come into its own. Casual consumers have been afraid of used EVs for a while, worrying about the costs of replacing battery packs and so on. This has depressed prices to the point that a used EV is occasionally cheaper than an equivalent compact.
With little maintenance to speak of, and ranges that still work for most Lower Mainland commuters, used EVs are going to start showing up in more driveways as they start to make financial sense to educated buyers. EVs aren’t likely to take over any time soon, but as a second vehicle for short-range commuters, they’re starting to make more sense.
Ride-hailing vs. taxis
Here’s a hot-button issue on the North Shore. Most consumers agree that we’re under-served for alternative transportation locally, with not enough competition to force taxi companies to up their game. Ride-hailing would fill that gap, and many major cities have adopted it.
If you’ve used Uber or Lyft when visiting Los Angeles or New York, it’s hard to see why we don’t have it here yet. On the other hand, there are all manner of studies to suggest that ride-hailing technology is no panacea. Uber, for instance, is heavily subsidized by venture capital money, which is why it seems so reasonable. Reducing regulations also seems problematic.
So here’s a story that might inform how we handle things here. Austin, Texas, is known as a tech hub and a progressive city, but they refused to relax the rules for Uber and Lyft. As part of background checks for cab drivers, Austin’s bylaws require fingerprinting – Uber and Lyft didn’t like the extra step, so they pulled out. In response, locals formed a co-operative drive-sharing program called Ride Austin.
Everything worked pretty much like Uber, except that the drivers were earning a greater percentage of their fares, and riders were happy that the drivers were more thoroughly vetted. It all looked great – until the Texas legislature overrode Austin’s laws. Uber and Lyft came back to town and started stealing riders away (locals still rode, tourists used what they were familiar with). Currently, the local service is still battling it out with the giants.
Could a Ride North Shore app work here? It’s not like there’s much proprietary technology to worry about. Certainly ride-hailing is going to continue to be an issue through 2019.
Autonomous cars – maybe never?
The other big change that always seems to be on the horizon is the driverless car. Certainly everyone’s talking about them, and driving assists are getting ever smarter, but will our cars someday drive themselves?
Not any time soon, say most experts, who are concerned about the ability of autonomous vehicles to handle poor weather conditions (say, does it ever rain heavily around here?). There’s also the ever-present question of liability.
What seems more likely for the immediate future is something like Toyota’s Guardian concept. Here, the driver is ultimately responsible, but there are a number of safeguards in place. Automatic emergency braking, for instance, can help stop something you’ve missed, and audible warnings can prevent fender-benders. In Japan, Toyota has been tracking the results of their first roll-out of simple driving assists, and have noted a 70 per cent reduction in collisions, as well as mitigation of the 30 per cent of collisions that still happen.
Like the three-point seatbelt and anti-lock brakes, these advances get us closer to an “uncrashable” car, albeit one where a human being is still in charge. The problem is that humans tend to over-trust technology – ever notice that the first vehicle you see in a ditch after a snowfall is usually an all-wheel-drive SUV?
The future, like the present, is going to be a race between technology, and the unintended consequences of the way people use that technology. Strap in, because 2019 looks like it’s going to be an interesting ride.
Brendan McAleer is a freelance writer and automotive enthusiast. If you have a suggestion for a column, or would be interested in having your car club featured, please contact him at [email protected]. Follow Brendan on Twitter: @brendan_mcaleer.
