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GOOD: Election 2017: who takes it is anyone’s guess

I’ve learned not to make rash predictions about election results; however, I do have some thoughts about what factors will play to the outcome of this one. Christy Clark isn’t the bright new face she was six years ago.
Bill Good

I’ve learned not to make rash predictions about election results; however, I do have some thoughts about what factors will play to the outcome of this one. Christy Clark isn’t the bright new face she was six years ago. She entered the campaign as a popular radio talk show host. And most people, with the exception of teachers and hard core New Democrats, liked her.

She proved a much more capable campaigner than Adrian Dix. Mr. Dix took the unusual tact of trying to be Mr. Nice Guy and didn’t use attack ads, the likes of which tend to work.

Ms. Clark wore hard hats, and made grandiose promises. She’d balance the budget, which she did. She’d kick start a liquefied natural gas industry that would pave the way to a debt free B.C. In fact the industry hasn’t emerged, and Ms. Clark has overseen an eleven billion dollar increase in the provincial debt.

As Premier Ms. Clark pushed ahead with the very expensive Site C dam project to the point where most observers feel is past the point of no return. She’s insisted on a 10-lane $3.5-billion Massey Tunnel replacement. All but one mayor opposes that project.

The NDP has done what I think is an effective job of painting Ms. Clark and the Liberals as the party of rich and comfortable people, many of whom are donors to the party itself and Christy Clark personally.

Now despite all this baggage, the Liberals have an edge going into this election. They have 48 seats (counting Pat Pimm’s Peace River North riding) to the NDP’s 35. There are two additional ridings as well. A veteran of B.C. politics, now well out of it, reminded me recently there are twelve ridings the Liberals hold that were won by five thousand votes four years ago.

That’s a total of five thousand all together. So if a few thousand people who voted Liberal last time don’t vote this time, or change their vote it’s an all new ball game.

The other factor is the Green Party. In my view Andrew Weaver has a much higher profile than former leader Jane Sterk. He has a seat in the legislature. He performed well in the last televised debate, and it’s just a gut feeling I have that some soft Liberal votes will go Green.

There are people who can never bring themselves to vote NDP, but may not be big Christy Clark fans. There are Liberals who supported Gordon Campbell who don’t have much love for Ms. Clark.

John Horgan on the other hand does not have much of a profile outside the recently fertile Vancouver Island area. Andrew Weaver is well known on the Island too, and his base looks to be growing. How much he takes from the NDP and how much from the Liberals we won’t know until late on May 9.

That’s why this election is so hard to predict.

There are other factors that have to be considered too. The last federal election saw thousands of new, young voters. My belief is that Mr. Trudeau had huge appeal to a new generation, and his promise to legalize marijuana probably helped draw that vote. Ms. Clark is no longer a new face. She likely loses some votes she won last time. Housing affordability is a big issue. The Liberal foreign buyer’s tax cooled the market a bit, but no one seems to really have an answer for how to actually make housing more affordable for first-time buyers.

Mr. Horgan promises to make foreign buyers pay even a higher tax, but can any of the parties really stop people from all over the world who can afford to buy in Greater Vancouver and Victoria from coming here?

What is unaffordability for some people is comfort in retirement for others who count on the equity in their homes to help fund their senior living years.

Finally, can any of the parties find a way to make our health care delivery more efficient?

Voting has been made easier with advance polls, but who to vote for is still a hard call for many.

Bill Good is a veteran broadcaster currently heard daily on News 1130. Reach him via Twitter @billgood_news

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