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BALDREY: When will Trudeau’s popularity wane?

I was a bit taken aback when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau drew the loudest roar from the crowd of any guest when he was introduced at the B.C. legislature on the weekend along with the visiting royal couple, the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge.
Baldrey

I was a bit taken aback when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau drew the loudest roar from the crowd of any guest when he was introduced at the B.C. legislature on the weekend along with the visiting royal couple, the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge.

By contrast, Premier Christy Clark’s reception was more muted and a smattering of boos could be heard amid the polite applause.

A reason for the different kinds of response may lie in the fact that Clark has been running a government for more than five years now and therefore has made decisions that have rubbed many people the wrong way.

Trudeau, on the other hand, is approaching the first anniversary of his election victory and has yet to make the kind of decision on key issues that is sure to anger a chunk of the electorate no matter which way the decision goes.

His personal popularity remains high, as does support for his government. The international media have gone nuts about him, and his penchant for selfies, parades and sharing the stage with world leaders has kept him front and centre with the public, with no heavy lifting involved.

But the prime minister is about to open his own Pandora’s box, and in doing so will inevitably find himself the target of all kinds of angry responses. Some of the issues coming out of that box he inherited; others he created for himself.

First and foremost are the decisions his government must make that involve the production and movement of oil and natural gas. Will he or won’t he approve at least one oil pipeline coming out of Alberta to tidewater, and the same question must be posed when it comes to the LNG industry in B.C.

I’ve written here before that I think his government will green-light both an oil pipeline (most likely Kinder Morgan) and the Pacific Northwest LNG project. But in both cases, such a decision will surely enrage and upset a large segment of the electorate.

There will undoubtedly be mass protest rallies, particularly in response to approval of the Kinder Morgan, the kind that gives politicians pause for concern.

But Trudeau must be willing to risk losing some of his hefty political capital in order to make tough calls. That’s what governing is all about.

Some of those decisions may well cause the defeat, come the next election, of some members of his current federal caucus. And there is always a risk some of those members staring at electoral doom may publicly voice their displeasure over his leadership, but so be it.

Trudeau also ran on a promise to protect and to grow the economy, and that means dealing with those sticky energy dilemmas.

Flowing directly from those energy issues are the high expectations he has created for First Nations in this country. A large number of First Nations oppose pipelines (although it is important to note that many support them), and Trudeau has also backtracked on his promise to directly implement the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous People, pushing it off to a fuzzy consultation process.

On top of that, his government quietly approved key permits allowing the Site C dam construction to go ahead, even while two First Nations bands are in court trying to stop it.

Some First Nations leaders have essentially argued they have a veto over all kinds of industrial development, a position no prime minister can support. As Trudeau inevitably makes decisions that fly in the face of that position, sparks will fly.

There are two other potential headaches that Trudeau has needlessly created for himself: reforming the Senate, and arbitrarily changing the federal electoral system.

These are the kinds of issues that can bring constitutionality sensitive matters -- often involving Quebec -- into play, and history shows they can strangle a government quite quickly.

Trudeau doesn’t have to proceed with either reform -- the public is hardly crying out for any changes to Senate or how we elect our MPs -- and he may well abandon both.

If he doesn’t, they will likely -- in combination with those energy-related decisions -- ensure that if another royal visit involving Will and Kate occurs a couple of years from now, the loud ovation he received on the weekend will be a very distant memory.

Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC. Keith.Baldrey@globalnews.ca

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