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BALDREY: Trudeau’s political future tied to Trans Mountain

The question now is, will Justin Trudeau blink? The prime minister talked a good game on the weekend about how the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion will be built, no matter what. Full stop. Now, it is one thing to invite B.C.

The question now is, will Justin Trudeau blink? The prime minister talked a good game on the weekend about how the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion will be built, no matter what. Full stop.

Now, it is one thing to invite B.C. Premier John Horgan into the same room, have a polite discussion about the pipeline, and end the conversation with an agreement to disagree.

It is quite another thing to watch what is likely to unfold in the months ahead, as hundreds of people (quite possibly more) are arrested for defying an injunction at the Kinder Morgan facility on Burnaby Mountain. They hope to inflict maximum political damage on the Trudeau brand.

A former NDP cabinet minister in the 1990s NDP government told me on the weekend, after the pipeline summit in Ottawa had concluded, that he wondered whether Trudeau had the political resilience to weather the coming storm.

“We went through this with Clayoquot Sound, and (then-premier) Harcourt blinked,” he told me, referring to the forestry protests on Vancouver Island, in which more than 800 people were arrested. “I wonder whether Trudeau can hold it together when he goes through the same thing.”

Trudeau won 17 seats in B.C. in the last election and a byelection since then. While opinion polls show more British Columbians tend to support the pipeline than oppose it, it is likely any hardcore opposition is rooted in Metro Vancouver, where most of those Liberal ridings are located.

Trudeau’s Liberals won some of those ridings by fairly impressive margins, in some cases by more than 30 or 40 percentage points over their nearest rival candidate. Presumably, the pipeline issue may cause some of that vote to drift over to the NDP (not the Conservatives) come the next election.

The question is, how much of that electorate will leave the Liberals over Kinder Morgan, and will it translate into a serious seat loss? The answer is unclear, but surely, some ridings will be in jeopardy.

Assuming Trudeau can hold his nerve in the face of mass protests, there are likely only two other obstacles in his path: the B.C.’s reference court case on whether it can regulate the transport of bitumen, and a court challenge by First Nations opposed to the pipeline.

Most constitutional experts have given B.C. a not very good chance of winning in court, and what looks like an uphill challenge might be made more difficult by Trudeau’s weekend announcement that he will bring in legislation to further strengthen the federal government’s jurisdictional powers regarding pipelines.

However, given higher courts’ previous favourable rulings on First Nations’ territorial rights, a First Nations lawsuit has the potential of derailing the project. The National Energy Board’s approval of the Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline was overturned by a federal court because consultation with First Nations was ruled to have been insufficient.

A similar case and argument is working its way through the Federal Court of Appeal. While it is clear that Kinder Morgan and its subsidiary Trans Mountain engaged in far more consultation with First Nations than Enbridge did, you just never know what a court will do.

Court challenges aside, Trudeau has another potential problem when it comes to relations with First Nations. Some First Nations leaders, such as Grand Chief Stewart Phillips of the Union of B.C. Indian Chiefs, have threatened an “Oka-like” standoff.

The “Oka crisis” involved a confrontation and standoff between the Mohawk First Nation and eventually Canadian Armed Forces troops sent in by the government.

More than 40 First Nations back the pipeline project or have signed benefits agreements, which is a significant amount of support. A number of those First Nations say the benefits will allow many of their members to escape poverty conditions.

However, there is also considerable opposition, and Phillips’ warnings should not be discounted.

It all adds up to a lot of pressure about to be placed on Trudeau’s shoulders. In the coming months, we will know if he can take it.

Nevertheless, he has gone all-in on the pipeline, and so if he wants to ensure his political future, no blinking allowed.

Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC. Keith.Baldrey@globalnews.ca