Premier Christy Clark named her new cabinet last week, but it should be the shortest-serving cabinet in memory as her government is expected to lose a confidence vote on June 29 and thus fall from power.
And that’s when all eyes will turn to NDP leader John Horgan who, propped up by the B.C. Green Party, will then put together his government’s cabinet in the weeks ahead.
Of course, there could be a hiccup or two before we get to that point. I doubt Clark will advise Lt.-Gov. Judith Guichon to dissolve the house after losing a confidence vote (and until that vote is actually taken, we can’t be too sure about anything) but I suppose you never know.
Still, it appears more than likely that Horgan will engage in cabinet-making fairly soon (and I’m not talking about the furniture variety).
He may be more challenged in this task than was Clark, who is just running out the string. Horgan, however, hopes to govern for as long as possible but he’s also facing some tricky navigating through gender, ethnic and geographical waters as he picks ministers from his 41-member caucus.
Still, it’s a challenge I’m sure he relishes and one Clark no doubt hopes to face again herself sooner than later.
While all political parties, for the most part, try to achieve a healthy gender balance when it comes to things like forming a cabinet or fielding a team of candidates, the NDP has much more rigid rules. So Horgan must ensure his cabinet is split about 50-50 between men and women.
He also faces some interesting geographical challenges. His party won only four seats outside of Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island, which means the Interior and the North will have minimal representation at the cabinet table.
It will be interesting how that lack of regional representation affects public policies drafted by an incoming NDP government. Already somewhat alienated from the natural resource sector, the party has some work to do to establish credibility on issues that resonate there and it will be harder to do with a cabinet top-heavy with urban and suburban ministers.
Still, even with these rules and challenges, it’s always fun to play Let’s Make a Cabinet, so let’s get to it.
SURE BETS
Veteran MLAs Carole James, Mike Farnworth and Adrian Dix (two former leaders and all former leadership candidates) are pretty much shoo-ins to make the cabinet table. So, too, are a couple of those who are entering their second terms: David Eby and Selina Robinson (who seemed to emerge as a Horgan favourite shortly after the 2013 election).
James will undoubtedly be named deputy premier, and will emerge as a strong performer in cabinet. Farnworth and Dix will also likely play key roles in an NDP government.
NEXT MOST LIKELY
It will be interesting to see how many Vancouver MLAs make the grade. The party has eight MLAs from that city, and all could be considered cabinet material.
Of the eight (Eby and Dix are sure bets) it would appear Spencer Chandra-Herbert and Melanie Mark would head the list. But MLAs Shane Simpson and George Heyman also seem likely, as does Mable Elmore. I’ll be surprised if more than one of them is left out.
Winning all those suburban seats helped boost the NDP seat count and that will undoubtedly be reflected in the makeup of cabinet. So look for Bruce Ralston, Judy Darcy, Harry Bains and some newcomers from around the Metro area to be chosen.
Surrey, in particular, can expect to have strong representation at the cabinet table.
Outside of Metro, I’ll wager on Doug Donaldson, Michelle Mungall, Claire Trevena and Lana Popham to make the grade.
NEWCOMERS
The election result injected a lot of new blood into the NDP caucus (15 new faces) and that has to show up at the cabinet table.
I would say the best bets from this bunch are (North Vancouver-Lonsdale MLA) Bowinn Ma, Jinny Sims, Ravi Kahlon and Katrina Chen (all from Metro Vancouver).
Finally, how about veteran MLA Rob Fleming – who may be squeezed out of cabinet because three other capital MLAs are likely to be in it – for Speaker? Or perhaps that will fall to veteran Raj Chouhan, who has served as deputy Speaker.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC. Keith.Baldrey@globalnews.ca
What are your thoughts? Send us a letter via email by clicking here or post a comment below.
