Now that Lt.-Gov. Judith Guichon did the right thing and refused outgoing Premier Christy Clark’s request that she dissolve the legislature and pave the way for another election, we’re probably spared another vote for at least eight or nine months.
That’s because the incoming NDP government will only face two confidence votes in that period of time and will more than likely win both of them.
And another big reason for not having another election anytime soon is the B.C. Liberals cannot risk defeating the NDP-Green party alliance and foisting another election upon an electorate that clearly doesn’t want one for a while.
That’s what made Clark’s behaviour at Government House last week seem so bizarre. Other than her, I see little evidence many B.C. Liberals were clamouring for another election as they too know the outcome could have been a disaster for them.
The seats they won by close margins – Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, Richmond-Queensborough, and Vancouver Centre – could easily flip into the NDP’s hands were another election held soon.
Any party seen as causing an unnecessary and expensive (about $35 million) election in the coming weeks would likely be punished for having done so.
But an election next spring? That’s another matter entirely.
By then, the NDP government will have been in power long enough to experience both the highs and lows that come with governing. Some negative baggage will inevitably have been collected between now and then, and much of the anger seemingly directed the B.C. Liberals’ way on May 9 may have dissipated.
And it’s at that point – and not before – the outgoing B.C. Liberals can start thinking how it can topple a one-seat majority government.
Until then, however, the new government might enjoy some stability and flexibility normally not associated with such a tight majority.
First of all, the legislature will likely only sit for a couple of months, and there will only be those two confidence votes. The house will not return sitting until next February.
It’s unlikely a ton of legislation will be introduced this fall, so there won’t be a lot to vote for anyway. And if the B.C. Liberals treat the contents of their failed throne speech as now part of their election platform, presumably they will vote for any bills that reflect some of what was in the throne speech (not doing so would be seen as sheer hypocrisy).
And it will be the New Democrat MLAs who will have the most motivation to make sure they are at the legislature each and every day to ensure their agenda is implemented. The B.C. Liberal caucus, about to experience the frustrations that come with sitting in Opposition, will not bring much enthusiasm to its new tasks.
While any NDP MLA will get off their sick bed to make sure they come to vote, I wouldn’t count on the B.C. Liberal caucus showing the same dedication.
The NDP appears to have figured a way around the convention that says the Speaker cannot sit in the committee of the whole stage of debating legislation (most business will simply be turned over to a smaller committee, where there is no Speaker and so no convention is broken).
It seems the NDP has not, however, figured out how to get around the convention that the Speaker cannot vote in favour of legislation (because a Speaker only votes to maintain the status quo, and legislation represents change).
But I suppose it could attach to any bill it wants passed (the Speaker is allowed to vote for the government on a confidence vote).
There will be a fair amount of jockeying and strategizing, but the NDP should be able to call the B.C. Liberals’ bluff from time to time, knowing the party departing from government knows it has to go away for a while and lick its wounds.
And the NDP government can use other tools at its disposal – cabinet orders, regulations – to implement part of its agenda, and won’t have to worry about doing everything in the legislature.
In any event, after seven weeks of uncertainty I think we can all relax. The fall session will be fascinating to watch, but another election anytime soon?
Don’t count on it.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC. [email protected]
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