A pre-election poll prepared by Insights West shows Liberal candidate and former mayor Pamela Goldsmith-Jones leading in the West Vancouver federal riding, but just barely.
A tight one per cent margin sits between Goldsmith-Jones and incumbent Conservative MP John Weston, according to poll results released last week. Of the 301 adults Insights canvassed who live in the West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea-to-Sky constituency, 23 per cent said they would vote Liberal, while 22 per cent picked the Conservatives, 19 per cent chose NDP and nine per cent preferred the Green Party.
“In West Vancouver, running a former mayor gives the Liberals credibility and name recognition,” said Mario Canseco, vice-president of public affairs for Insights West, of Goldsmith-Jones’ slim lead.
In the North Vancouver riding, Canseco said it’s another two-way race but not because the Liberals and candidate Jonathan Wilkinson are in the lead with 25 per cent, but rather the Conservatives and incumbent Andrew Saxton, at 24 per cent, are losing votes to both the NDP and the Green parties, which earned 19 per cent and 11 per cent, respectively, of the votes.
Which party leader — Thomas Mulcair, Elizabeth May, Stephen Harper or Justin Trudeau — would make the best Prime Minister of Canada was another question on the Insights survey.
Mulcair makes the grade in North Vancouver, with 29 per cent of the vote. Harper is one per cent behind Mulcair and followed by Trudeau at 23 per cent and May at five per cent.
In West Vancouver Mulcair, at 28 per cent, also won the popular vote for preferred prime minister by a four per cent margin over Harper and trailed by Trudeau at 22 per cent and May at 11 per cent.
The poll, conducted on behalf of environmental group the Dogwood Initiative, also showed that 63 per cent of North Vancouver voters and 57 per cent of West Vancouver voters disagreed that B.C. would benefit from more oil tankers on the coast.
People should take all the survey results with “a high level of caution” said UBC political science professor Maxwell Cameron, citing factors such as the federal election still being many months out and the small sample size used.
Chief among Cameron’s issues with the survey is the “massive margin of error” at plus or minus 5.6 percentage points for each riding.
“Meaning you could be off by as much as 10 per cent on any of these questions,” said Cameron, adding that using a sample size closer to 2,000 people would paint a more accurate picture.
Canseco said the 300-respondent sample size is robust enough to issue these early polling numbers, but there are more important factors that Insights considers to get a well-rounded response: polling people that “accurately represent the ridings” in terms of demographics and past voting behaviour.
“You could be talking to 20,000 people, but if all of them are non-voters, or from the same area, or the same gender, it doesn’t matter much,” said Canseco.
Cameron said he suspects the Dogwood Initiative’s motivation with this poll is to try and figure out in the closer ridings who is the best challenger to the Conservatives, which raises the issue of strategic voting.
“Will people be looking at these kinds of polls — whether they are reliable or not — and try to make judgments about who is the best candidate to unseat the incumbent?” said Cameron. “Voting strategically is probably not a good thing to do. People should be voting with their conscience in a tight race.”
When it comes to the oil tanker question, Cameron figures the Dogwood Initiative is anticipating that tankers and pipelines are going to be an issue that is going to hurt the Conservatives in the B.C. ridings. Mulcair’s political experience gives him an advantage over Trudeau, said Cameron while breaking down the North Shore numbers for preferred prime minister.
“Trudeau has proven that he has charisma, but there are still some doubts about him and his readiness to be a leader,” said Cameron.
The Insights poll results can be influential on how the candidates brand themselves in the lead-up to the election, said Cameron.
“The candidates will look at (the numbers) and decide: Do I want to emphasize that I am a Liberal candidate or do I emphasize that I am part of the Trudeau team or do I emphasize that I am Pamela Goldsmith-Jones and a former mayor?”
